As the July 9 expiration of the current tariff pause draws near, the United States is escalating negotiations with key trade partners—setting the stage for potential sweeping tariff increases across a range of imported goods.

At Zone Fusion, we’re actively monitoring developments to help clients navigate the shifting global trade landscape. Below is a quick snapshot of where talks stand with several key countries:

• European Union: The EU is resisting a baseline 10% tariff and has warned of retaliatory measures, including on US aircraft. Former President Trump has floated tariffs of up to 50% on EU goods once the pause ends.

• India: Discussions have hit a wall over US demands to open India’s agricultural and automotive sectors. Despite the impasse, Indian exports—especially in pharmaceuticals and electronics—continue to grow.

• Japan: Japan has rejected proposed 25% tariffs on autos, citing major investments in US manufacturing. Over $60 billion has been invested by Japanese companies in the US, but an agreement remains elusive after six rounds of talks.

• Spain: Trade policy is being tied to NATO defense contributions, with the US threatening to double tariffs unless Spain increases its defense spending.

• Pakistan: Negotiations are showing signs of progress, with a potential deal expected soon. However, Pakistan could still face a 29% tariff due to its trade surplus with the US.

• Vietnam: A deal appears close, with Vietnam offering increased US imports to limit tariffs to 20–25%.

• Thailand: Facing a possible 36% tariff, Thailand has formally proposed to bring the rate down to 10%. The US remains its largest export destination.

• Malaysia: Talks are advancing, particularly around semiconductors—60% of which are exported to the US. Malaysia is aiming for tariff caps below 10%.

• Canada: Canada is preparing countermeasures on steel and aluminum if no agreement is reached. Migration and fentanyl remain complicating factors in ongoing discussions.